“That’s the nature of these big primaries,” said Jeremy Johnson, political science professor at Carroll College. “Money and name recognition become very important.”

And there could be an eighth candidate, should former U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg register to run, as he indicated to Politico last week that he might.

Voting begins May 6, just 90 days from now. The winner of the Republican primary race will face either Democrats Ming Cabrera, of Billings or Kevin Hamm of Helena in the fall.

The closest primaries with similar size were the six-candidate Democratic primary for Montana’s at large house seat in 2018, which Kathleen Williams won with 33.5% of the vote and the five-candidate Republican primary of 2014, which Ryan Zinke won with 33.3%.

The large primaries for either party produced some surprises. In spending, Williams was a very distant third, raising half as much as the top two campaigns in her primary, finance records show. The Bozeman resident was credited with personally campaigning in remote rural areas her opponents didn’t travel to.

Similarly, Republican Corey Stapleton placed second behind Zinke in 2014, despite being outspent two-to-one, not only by Zinke, but also third-place finisher Matt Rosendale. Stapleton didn’t advertise as frequently, but he advertised heavily in the final weeks as absentee voting started.

Johnson said small things, like an endorsement by the right person, or a message with a good hook, might be the deciding factor in this spring’s Republican primary. There’s not much difference between what the candidates support.

These are the Republican candidates so far:

Elsie Arntzen, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction, has served eight years directing the state Office of Public Instruction. She was also a Republican primary candidate for Montana’s at-large seat in that crowded 2014 field, in which she finished fourth.

Ken Bogner is a Miles City native, Marine Corps veteran and was Montana state senate president pro tempore in the 2023 Montana Legislature. Most primary voters in the Eastern District will be seeing Bogner’s name for the first time.

Troy Downing, Montana’s current state auditor, leads the pack in fundraising with about $300,000 cash one hand. He was elected Auditor as part of the Republican sweep of Montana statewide offices in 2020. Prior to 2020, Downing was a candidate for the Republican 2018 U.S. Senate primary but lost to Rosendale in a four-candidate race.

Ric Holden ranches in Dawson County and served four terms in state Senate representing southeast Montana until 2002. He will be a new name on the ballots of most voters in the district, but a familiar one to voters in Glendive and southeast Montana.

Joel Krautter is an attorney in Billings and a state legislator who represented Sidney. A Deer Lodge native, Krautter will be appearing on the ballots of most Eastern District voters for the first time.

Ed Walker served one term in the Montana Senate starting in 2011. At the time, he had five children at home and decided it was best for his family not to run again. When he filed for the primary this spring, Walker was the Montana Chairman for U.S. Term Limits, a group advocating term limits at all government levels, but particularly Congress. Walker will be recognizable to voters in Billings, where he lives.

Stacy Zinn of Billings is well-known in law enforcement circles and a frequent speaker about the state’s drug trafficking challenges. Her 20-plus years with the DEA include several years on the U.S.-Mexico border. This is Zinn’s first campaign.